Taking a look at what role Edo state will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Edo State Governor  

Comrade Adams Oshiomole 

Edo State was formed on 27 August 1991 when Bendel State was split into Edo and Delta States. Its capital is Benin City. The state comprises of 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs). The state is currently under the control of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

The Peoples Democratic Party won Edo state in a landslide in 2011 Presidential election. The PDP received 1,165,629 of the total votes cast, which translates to 95%. This is remarkable considering Governor Adams Oshiomole was the sitting governor at the time while being an extremely vocal opposition leader. The ACN could only garner 54,148 votes, which translates to 4% of the total votes cast.

Fast-forwarding to the July 14, 2012 Gubernatorial election in the state, the situation was completely different.

Results of the 2012 Edo State Gubernatorial Election

In this election it is clear that the ACN won the election comprehensively. The ACN won every local government with huge margins with the exception of Esan West LGA where it won 48 % or 13,499 of the votes while the PDP won 47.23% or 13,282 of the total votes cast.

Governor Adams Oshiomole is a stalwart of the All Progressives Congress and it remains to be seen what impact this will have on the presidential election in 2015. It is very possible that the  PDP will not be able to win up to 95% of the votes in Edo State come 2015.  This may not be unconnected with the APC’s intention of bringing out a formidable candidate. It was clear that the ACN presidential candidate in 2011 was not likely to be a threat to the PDP and CPC candidates. It was consequently observed that almost all the ACN controlled states voted convincingly in favour of the PDP candidate.

As long as the APC merger holds through to the 2015 elections, the Edo State APC will have to endeavour to deliver as many votes as possible to support the APC candidate.

Because the PDP is extremely strong in Edo State and the state is also a south-south state the PDP will have a great chance especially if the APC select a ticket that does not include a south-south Nigerian.

In conclusion, 2015 will be tough in Edo State. The PDP will likely win the majority of votes but margins such as those of 2011 are extremely unlikely. The PDP should be able to win at least 65% of the votes.