Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Taking a look at what role Jigawa state will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Jigawa State was formed out of the old Kano State on 27 August 1991. Its capital is Dutse. The state has 27 LGAs. The state is currently controlled by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). 

Results of the 2011 Presidential Election in Jigawa State

Jigawa State Governor

Alhaji Sule Lamido

As can be clearly seen, the Congress for Progressive Change won the majority of votes in the state in the 2011 Presidential election. The PDP could only muster 38% of the total votes cast.  This is quite amazing considering the fact that the state is under the control of the ruling PDP. 
However considering the controversy that surrounded President Jonathans’s candidacy in 2011 based on the fact that the North felt it had not finished its eight consecutive years of power, then it is not difficult to understand the reults as they occurred.

In addition General Muhammadu Buhari is an extremely popular politician in the north-west and north-east geopoliitcal zones. 

Looking at 2015, the landscape only looks more dismal for the PDP in Jigawa State. Firstly the All Progressives Congress is taking shape and seems to be heading for a succesful merger. A number of PDP governor’s have been linked with the APC which could be a significant blow for the PDP. In the last Nigerian Governor’s Forum election conducted on May 31st 2013, the Jigawa State Governor was not one of the governors who endorsed the PDP’s consensus candiate, Governor Jonah Jang of Plateau State. Since the President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan has recogsied the Jonah Jang NGF as the authentic NGF, it is clear for all to see that the Jigawa State governor is probably not on the same page as president Jonathan. 

In addition to this, there have been widespread unconfirmed reports that Alhaji Sule Lamido will himself be contesting the 2015 Presidential election with powerful members of the PDP like former president Olusegun Obasanjo  purportedly supporting him.  However it must be noted here that the governor has not publicly confirmed any of these reports. 

Considering all these issues and not forgetting the strong desire by the North to win the presidency, the PDP should expect a lot of difficulty in securing votes in the state come 2015. The PDP should focus on getting at least 25% of the votes cast in the state and see any additional votes as a bonus.

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