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Election Monitor Publisher,
Abiodun Ajijola, presenting some copies of Election Monitor Newsletter to INEC
Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega
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The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Attahiru Jega recently came up with the idea of holding all elections in the country on the same day. “I think that in the future, not 2015, elections should be held in same day in line with global practices and Nigeria should move in that direction in the future. Staggered elections are not cost effective and it is not cost efficient and it is expensive,” Clearly, INEC recognises that staggering the General elections may continue at least as far as the 2015 general elections are concerned. There are administrative hurdles associated with conducting the national assembly, state houses of assembly, gubernatorial and presidential elections in one day. For example the key difference between a staggered and single day election administratively is the complexity of the ballot paper.
That is to say that the ballot papers must be designed
to accommodate all the parties contesting for elective offices for each
category of election. While it is possible to develop this, it needs to be done
creatively so as not to confuse voters or make the process unnecessarily
cumbersome. In this respect it is right to say that staggered elections are
more practical to execute.
However the general elections showed that fewer people
turned out for the gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections than
for the presidential election. This also shows that staggering elections has
some negative impact on voters as well. Because the voters have to come out to
vote each weekend for three consecutive weekends, fatigue sets in and voter
apathy grows with time. This is certainly not unconnected with the fact that
there is total lockdown of movement on Election Day grinding all economic
activities to a halt. For this reason, it may make sense to have the elections
on a single day even if the ballot papers and voting process is slightly more
cumbersome. Because the election is in a single day, it will likely experience
record turnout of voters since they know that they will not need to sacrifice
any other day.
Logistical planning is seen
as crucial. It is recommended to carry out mock voting to
get an understanding of the logistical challenges involved. Consideration must
be given to the additional space and staff needed in the ·
polling stations. Clear and
simple procedures need to be in place for voters to follow. It is recommended
to stagger the casting of votes within the polling station, i.e. receive
ballot(s) for some contests, vote, and then proceed and receive more ballots,
as was the case in South Sudan in 2010.
Population densities and adult literacy rates of countries that have practiced holding general elections on a single day in comparison with Nigeria
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Source: World Bank and World Atlas
There are several countries where general elections
have held on a single day.
· General elections in Britain
are made up of 650 individual elections that take place
on a single day, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
·
The Sudanese general
elections of 2010, where there were eight electoral contests held in the north
and 12 in the south, with considerable logistical success. It is, however, also
pointed out that this was a different set of circumstances, with voters being
able to vote over a four-day period.
·
The Philippines is given as
a case where a great many posts, from the national to the local level, are contested
on the same day and on a single ballot. This is seen to work partly because
voters are used to this system.
·
Zanzibar conducts five
ballots at once. Stress is laid on the importance of suitable polling
arrangements and polls closing in good time to enable timely counting.
· The
Ukrainian election of 2002 saw seven elections held simultaneously and is
described as “a mess” citing, among other things, the number of polling staff
and number of voters per polling station.
· In May 2011, Pakistan conducted its
general elections in a single day. There are over 86.1 million registered voters in Pakistan,
including over 48.6 million male and 37.5 million female voters, according to
the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). Out of the 342 National Assembly
seats, 272 seats were open for contesting. However, due to the death of
candidates and poor law and order situation, elections could only take place in
268 constituencies across the country. Out of the 728 provincial assembly
seats, 572 seats were open for voters with the remaining seats to be decided
according to the share of the seats won by the competing parties in the
elections.
While it is clear from the above cases that elections
on a single day are possible, for this to be successful several measures need
to be taken by INEC. These include but are not limited to the following:
·
Adequate planning is key to the success of single day
general elections. Great emphasis needs to be put on adequate voter education.
Voters must know what they are voting for and how to vote. Voter education
should include pictorial instructions of how to vote.
·
Separate and colour coded ballot papers
and boxes. One long ballot is seen by many as
problematic, both for the voter and when counting. It must, however, be taken
into account that separate ballots papers and boxes will increase the number of
people required to be present in the polling station and making crowding a
potential problem. The impact of the electoral system or systems used on ballot
design should also be noted.
·
The capacity of INEC to adequately design
and implement
several electoral contests is also critical. It is germane that there
must be contingency plans for potential scenarios and problems, i.e. Are all
voters eligible to vote in all elections?
Regarding the amount of
time required to vote, the organisation and
management of the polling stations are seen as key, with the numbers of voters ·
per polling station being
crucial. Considering that there are already 120,000 polling units catering to
an average of 613 people, it is clear that managing a more cumbersome voting
process will be difficult with such a large population and relatively small
geographic area.
· In terms of announcing the
results, INEC must be prepared for delays and
have a clear communication strategy that is “transparent, credible an open” and
that can “sustain confidence in the process.” It may be necessary to initiate a
computer-based Results Management System (RMS) for the processing of multiple
election results.
· Requirement
to recruit two polling station teams, one to vote and one to count; It will be necessary to have enough
staff at the polling units to monitor the voting and counting. This is because
as voting for one category is concluded, the next is just beginning. Another option is to leave all the counting
till the end, which take a longer time and may prove rather cumbersome,
· Emphasis
on observer briefing and polling team training; Accredited election observers and INEC
Adhoc personnel will need to be properly prepared in order to function
effectively.
·
Post election; review the number of voided
/ blank ballots as a possible indication of voter confusion; In the 2011 Presidential elections, there
were a total of 1,259,506 invalid
votes which translates to 3.19% of the total votes cast. In the ‘Election Data Centre’ of this edition of
Election Monitor Newsletter, we have taken a look at why the 2015 presidential
election will probably be the closest in the nation’s history at least amongst
the top two contenders. It is clear that a high amount of voided votes could affect
the outcome of the result if the victory margin is under 3%. This is quite
common in some other locations, like in the Ghanaian 2012 and Kenyan 2013
Presidential elections where the margin of victory was minute. It should be noted that if the single day
election did take place it would probably face its greatest challenges in the
regions of the country with the lowest literacy rates. It may then not prove a
favourable option for any political party whose support base is primarily from
the lower literate parts o f the country.
·
Clear protocols on what happens if voters
refuse any of the ballots; It is
key for INEC to have a standing protocol for what occurs when voters decide not
to vote for a particular race and assess the implications of this.
From the table above it is clear that the UK, the Philippines
and Ukraine all have adult literacy rates of over 95%. These countries also
have significant population densities. The countries are also much more
technically advanced and sophisticated than Nigeria. Democracy has been
operating for a considerable period in some of these places as well, like the
United Kingdom.
However, Kenya and Ghana also have higher adult literacy rates than Nigeria, but have much smaller population densities. This means that they will find it easier to run elections in a single day because of fewer people to administer at the polling units, fewer polling units and more literate people to vote.
Sudan is the only country here with a lower adult literacy rate than Nigeria, but also with the lowest population density. The very low population density is highly favourable for Sudan’s single general elections but it must be noted that the elections were carried out in four consecutive days.
In summary, this means that Nigeria may face significant challenges with successfully implementing single day general elections because of its huge population density which will make polling units difficult to administer (with 120,000 polling units, 613 people are on average in each PU) and the country’s low adult literacy rate will also compound issues with voters likely getting confused and frustrated. For this reason 2015 may be too early to commence single day general elections in Nigeria although a pilot run covering about 6 locations, one in each geopolitical zone should be experimented.
However, Kenya and Ghana also have higher adult literacy rates than Nigeria, but have much smaller population densities. This means that they will find it easier to run elections in a single day because of fewer people to administer at the polling units, fewer polling units and more literate people to vote.
Sudan is the only country here with a lower adult literacy rate than Nigeria, but also with the lowest population density. The very low population density is highly favourable for Sudan’s single general elections but it must be noted that the elections were carried out in four consecutive days.
In summary, this means that Nigeria may face significant challenges with successfully implementing single day general elections because of its huge population density which will make polling units difficult to administer (with 120,000 polling units, 613 people are on average in each PU) and the country’s low adult literacy rate will also compound issues with voters likely getting confused and frustrated. For this reason 2015 may be too early to commence single day general elections in Nigeria although a pilot run covering about 6 locations, one in each geopolitical zone should be experimented.
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