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Election Monitor Publisher, Abiodun Ajijola, presenting some copies of Election Monitor Newsletter to Rt. Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, Deputy Speaker Federal House of Representatives. With him is Hon. Ibrahim Tukur El-Sudi.
The whole nation is agog with the only gubernatorial election of 2013. The November 16th Anambra State gubernatorial election will likely be one of the most keenly contested elections in recent history. Anambra State has had a very vibrant political history. In the fourth republic Anambra has been the focus of a number of political intrigues. A brief look at the politicians in the state clearly shows that Anambra has a huge share of political heavyweights. In line with INEC’s requirements, the political parties with an interest in fielding candidates for the election have begun in earnest. The People’s Democratic Party as of the time of writing has begun screening and shortlisted 24 aspirants for its August 24 party primaries. The APC on the other hand has four leading candidates namely Dr. Chris Ngige, Godwin Ezeemo, Senator Annie Okonkwo and Hygers Igwebuike. The APC has assured its party members that the candidate selection process will be an equitable one. Ifeanyi Ubah the oil tycoon has decamped from APGA and seems in firm control of the state chapter of the Labour Party. The All Progressives Grand Alliance is the ruling party in the state but has been bedeviled by a number of internal crises in the recent months. However just a few weeks ago the National Chairman of the party, Chief Victor Umeh and Governor Peter Obi reconciled publicly and assured all concerned of APGA’s preparedness for the November 16 election. Some of the frontline candidates aspiring for the APGA ticket include; Mr. Oseloka Obaze, Dr. Chike Obidigbo, Mr. Tony Nnaecheta, Chief Willie Obiano and Professor Charles Soludo (former CBN Governor) amongst others. Looking at the gubernatorial election there are four political parties that will likely dominate the results come November. These parties are LP, APC, APGA and PDP. The Labour Party may not be considered as one of the dominant political parties in Anambra but it will likely field a very formidable candidate. The person most likely to fly the LP flag is Ifeanyi Ubah. Chief Ubah cannot and should not be written off because he is extremely wealthy and has some influence as well. He has started his campaign early and seems to be coordinating a very thorough grassroots mobilization effort. Were LP to win the state it would likely be a blow for the APC more than the PDP since the LP is not a part of the merger and existing politicians in the LP seem to be closer to the PDP than any other party. However the chances of the LP are slim compared to the remaining three frontline parties. The newly registered APC is a party eager to make a mark on the political scene. For this reason the APC will go all out to succeed in this election. The candidate most likely to win the party ticket is Dr Chris Ngige who is a relatively popular ex-governor of the state and a serving senator from Anambra Central. The APC has boasted severally that it will seize power from the ruling PDP come 2015. One of its greatest challenges however is its weakness in the South-East geopolitical zone. This is a zone that heavily favours the PDP.
Result of the 2011 Presidential in the South –
East Geopolitical Zone
 Result of the 2011 Presidential Election in the South–East Geopolitical Zone
Source: Independent National Electoral Commission Looking at the 2011 Presidential election the PDP swept the whole of the South-East in a landslide not recorded in any other part of the country. The PDP garnered 4,985,246 votes out of 5,051,455 (i.e. 99% of the total votes cast). Considering the current political outlook, it points to the fact that the South-East will again vote for the PDP if President Jonathan wins his party’s nomination. With this in mind the Anambra gubernatorial election is not just a race with implications in the state but a key opportunity to strengthen APC’s position nationally. The People’s Democratic Party is another major party contending passionately for the Anambra guber seat. The party has a lot of heavy weights in Anambra. However in the past 10 years some of these politicians have actually done more harm to the party than good. The Uba family is a popular family in the state but its political fortunes have dwindled somewhat since the days of the President Olusegun Obasanjo government where Chief Chris Uba basically recommended all political office holders in the state ranging from those at state level to even those at the federal level. The party seems to have regained its relevance in the state (today it controls two out of the three senatorial seats and five out of the eleven federal house of representatives seats). However similar to the APC, the Anambra gubernatorial election is a must win election for the PDP (both for state and federal considerations). Already the PDP has lost control of the Imo State governorship seat. This is quite fundamental because the Imo Gubernatorial election will be held after all other elections in 2015 (due to the re-runs in some LGAs in 2011). This means that the current governor will not be under the same pressure as those of some other states who will have their gubernatorial elections during the 2015 general elections. In addition the governor in Imo State will likely seek for re-election. His political antecedence shows that he will operate from any party that will enable him to achieve his political objectives (having being a member of the ANPP, PDP, APGA and very soon most likely the APC). From this synopsis it is obvious that the PDP cannot afford to lose another state in the South-East. Because this is the most secure region for the PDP (in addition to the South-South), the PDP must consider that losing the state would significantly affect its influence in the zone. From the table above, 1,145,169 Anambraians voted for President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011. This is extremely high and can be attributed to the resolution of APGA not to field a presidential candidate at the time. However looking at the table closer, it is easy to see that Anambra State had the second lowest voter turnout in the South-East (the lowest was Ebonyi). There must be a reason for this lower voter enthusiasm witnessed in Anambra compared to other states in the region. One of the likely reasons is that even though APGA basically supported the candidacy of President Jonathan, it is not the same as having the PDP in power in the state. For example if the PDP had been in power in Anambra in 2011, there would have probably been a greater level of voter mobilization by the party at all levels in the state. The voter turnout would have most likely been higher which would have resulted in much more total votes cast for the PDP. To understand this better it is good to look at the average voter turnout in the zone, which was 65.4%. This is about 8.4% higher than that of Anambra. This would translate to a potential additional 168,987 votes for the PDP. This is purely hypothetical because so many other factors contribute to voter turnout. However it goes without saying that the PDP will be able to guarantee a more emphatic victory in the state at the 2015 polls if it is able to win the 2013 gubernatorial election. While the relationship between APGA and the PDP (especially at the national level) seems to be cordial, the dynamics of 2015 could change that. Because of the APC merger, it is yet to be seen exactly what impact this will have on the PDP national membership and the polity as a whole. In politics there are no permanent friends but interests. For this reason, there is no guarantee that even if the APGA wins the election it will support the PDP candidate as it did in 2011. Every party is fighting for its survival and influence and as the battles get thicker, new alliances could be formed. For this reason the PDP needs to take its destiny into its own hands. Winning Anambra gubernatorial election is the only real way the PDP can be completely assured of maximum votes for its presidential candidate in 2015. The All Progressives Grand Alliance as the ruling party in the state enjoys the power of incumbency. Because of the current suspension of Owelle Rochas Okorocha from APGA, Anambra is currently the only state firmly in the grip of the party. The 2013 gubernatorial election is a must win for the APGA if it intends to remain relevant in regional and national politics. Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu was a great source of strength to the party while he was alive. Critically, APGA needs to do everything possible to ensure that it retains the Government House seat in Akwa come November 16. For APGA, the case is different from the LP, APC or even the PDP. This election is a matter of survival. APGA needs to find a way to ensure it is able to win convincingly even though it has mighty opponents. Looking at 2015, APGA will most likely support the PDP again as it did in 2015. As stated earlier in this article, nothing is certain in politics. But for all intents and purposes it is safe to say that the PDP landslide in 2011 will be repeated if APGA wins which means that the only way for the PDP to have a serious dent in its performance in Anambra at the Presidential polls is if the All People’s Congress wins the Anambra Guber election. Even the Labour Party would likely support the PDP candidacy in the unlikely event that it wins the November 16th Election. The APC must ensure that it corrects its image in the South-East as a ‘Yoruba’ party. The recent brewing crisis between Lagos and Anambra states over the ‘deportation of some destitute Nigerians’ must be stopped and the APC must initiate this, otherwise politicians will use this incidence to discredit the APC amongst the Anambra electorate, which will certainly affect the party at the polls. Since Anambra has never produced a governor from the North Senatorial District since 1991 when it was created, the APC must consider the wisdom of giving the ticket to Dr. Chris Ngige who hails from the central senatorial district (the same senatorial district as Governor Peter Obi who is a popular governor). Whatever the outcome of the November 16 election, it will have a definite impact on the 2015 presidential election. The exact impact remains to be seen. forthcoming election. The beneficiary of such a hard fought battle would be the would be the APC. Because it is more important politically for the PDP to win the presidential election, it must consider carefully its game plan as it strategises for the Anambra polls. There are advantages of winning the Anambra ticket for the PDP but in attempting to do so it must not divide the electorate so much that it gives its opponents a chance. The APC must ensure that it corrects its image in the South-East as a ‘Yoruba’ party. The recent brewing crisis between Lagos and Anambra states over the ‘deportation of some destitute Nigerians’ must be stopped and the APC must initiate this, otherwise politicians will use this incidence to discredit the APC amongst the Anambra electorate, which will certainly affect the party at the polls. Since Anambra has never produced a governor from the North Senatorial District since 1991 when it was created, the APC must consider the wisdom of giving the ticket to Dr. Chris Ngige who hails from the central senatorial district (the same senatorial district as Governor Peter Obi who is a popular governor). Whatever the outcome of the November 16 election, it will have a definite impact on the 2015 presidential election. The exact impact remains to be seen. |
Wednesday 28 August 2013
Taking a look at what the Anambra 2013 Gubernatorial election portends for the 2015 presidential race
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