Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Taking a look at what role Kano State will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Kano State was created on May 27, 1967 from part of the Northern Region. Kano state borders Katsina State to the north-west, Jigawa State to the north-east, Bauchi State to the south-east and Kaduna State to the south-west. The capital of Kano State is Kano. The state originally included Jigawa State, which was made a separate state in 1991. It has 44 local governments the highest in Nigeria. The ruling People’s Democratic Party currently controls the state. 

Kano State Governor
Alhaji (Dr.) Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso
Kano is one of the states that is strongly dominated by the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). In fact the 2011 Gubernatorial election in Kano would have probably been won by the CPC if not for some last minute internal problems in the CPC.Looking at 2015, the North has indicated it desire to have a return of the office of the president.  Kano State Governor, Alhaji Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso is clearly not in the camp of governor’s who are backing president Jonathan for 2015.  

This can clearly be seen from the following quote from a recent newspaper article. According to ThisDay Newspaper of 18th June 2013, “Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, Monday opened up on the intrigues which resulted in the emergence of two governors as chairmen of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), stating that it was a battle for supremacy and a game in which supporters of the Rivers State Governor, Mr. Chibuike Amaechi, outsmarted supporters of his Plateau State counterpart, Jonah Jang.”

Results of the 2011 Presidential Election in Kano State

In 2011, the PDP could only muster 17% of the total votes cast in Kano State despite the fact that there was no known rancor between the then gubernatorial candidate (now executive governor) and candidate Jonathan. It would be very difficult to see how the PDP will win up to 15% of the votes in Kano in 2015. With the APC merger and the governor’s current disposition to President Jonathan’s candidacy, the PDP would find it extremely difficult in Kano if President Jonathan wins the party’s nomination.

This should be of great concern to the PDP because Kano has 5,027,297 registered voters making it the second largest in the whole country.

The All Progressives Congress will most certainly coast home to an easy victory in Kano in 2015. A victory margin of between 85% and 90% should not be surprising. 

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