The People’s Democratic Party’s challenge of receiving majority votes in the 2015 Presidential Election

The People’s Democratic Party won the 2011 Presidential election with a landslide. However, despite this, the party showed weakness in the north-east and north-west geopolitical zones where it was only able to win Adamawa State (which was with only 57% of the votes).

With the clamour for return of power to the North in 2015 and the emergence of the All Progressives Congress, the PDP has a huge battle to face in the north-east and north-west come 2015. The PDP should expect greater difficulty securing votes in these regions than in 2011. Because these two regions account for 42% of the total voters in the country, their importance to the PDP cannot be underestimated.

Total Votes won by each political party in the North-East and North-West geopolitical zones in the 2011 Presidential Election

State	No. of Registered Voters	CPC	PDP	ACN	ANPP	Total Number of Votes	% Voter Turnout
ADAMAWA	1816094	344,526	508,314	32,786	2,706	888,332	49
BAUCHI	2523614	1,315,209	258,404	16,674	8,777	1,599,064	63
BORNO	2380957	909,763	207,075	7,533	37,279	1,161,650	49
GOMBE	1318377	459898	290347	5693	3420	759,358	58
JIGAWA	2013974	663,994	419,252	17,355	7,673	1,108,274	55
KADUNA	3905387	1,334,244	1,190,179	11,278	17,301	2,553,002	65
KANO	5027297	1,624,543	440,666	42,353	526,310	2,633,872	52
KATSINA	3126898	1,163,919	428,392	10,945	6,342	1,609,598	51
KEBBI	1638308	501,453	369,198	26,171	3,298	900,120	55
SOKOTO	2267509	540,769	309,057	20,144	5,063	875,033	39
TARABA	1336221	451354	257986	17791	1203	728,334	55
YOBE	1373796	337,537	117,128	6,059	143,179	603,903	44
ZAMFARA	1824316	624,515	238,980	17,970	46,554	928,019	51
TOTAL	30,552,748	9,811,826	4,776,992	209,268	804,482	16,348,559

We will take a look at both the north-east and north-west geopolitical zones to see what chances the PDP has come 2015.

North-East and North-West Geopolitical Zones

While the PDP did not manage to win the majority of states in the North-East and North-West in 2011 in did manage above 25% of the total votes cast in the majority of states in those regions. This is a major challenge for the PDP in 2015 because of the newly formed APC. With the likely decamping of some of its governors to the APC the PDP will have to go the extra mile to obtain 25% of total votes cast in these two geopolitical regions.

Adamawa state went to the PDP in 2011 and it is difficult to see how the PDP will lose the state in 2015. Depending on the APC choice of candidate, it is very likely that it will not be able to win in Adamawa. The PDP is the party to beat in this state and the party must do everything possible to keep its members loyal and happy so as not to give room for the opposition to penetrate.  

Total Votes won by each political party in the North-East and North-West geopolitical zones in 2011 Presidential Election

The state is home to many PDP big wigs such as Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, National Chairman of PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former Vice-President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Murtala Nyako, Executive Governor Adamawa Sate etc. As long as these politicians remain in the party and the crisis rocking the Adamawa state PDP is resolved amicably then the PDP should have a good outing in the state come 2015.

Taraba is another stronghold of the PDP even though the CPC won the state in 2011. The Governor, Danbaba Suntai is PDP and will probably use his political structure and influence to garner as many votes for the PDP as possible.

Kaduna has a very large indigenous Christian population. The state voted massively for PDP in 2011 (1,190,179 votes) and it is expected that the same will repeat itself in 2015. While the PDP may not win the state, it can muster up to 45% of the votes if it strategises properly.

In 2011 Kebbi and Jigawa states polled very high votes for the PDP 369,198 and 419,252 respectively. There are unconfirmed reports that the Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido will run for President in 2015. If this turnouts to be true, PDP may struggle to win 25% of the vote in Jigawa state, though it may just be able to make it. The PDP should be able to win 25% of the votes in Kebbi State assuming the Governor remains in the PDP. The Kebbi State Governor, Saidu Dakingari will not be up for election in 2015 and so his support is key for the party to win the state. The party must ensure that it keeps Alhaji Dakingari within its fold.

Sokoto is the seat of the caliphate. It was keenly contested in 2011 during the Presidential election. PDP lost the state but won 35.3% of the total votes cast. The PDP has a lot of support in Sokoto, but unconfirmed reports that the Speaker, House of Representative Rt. Hon. Aminu Tambuwal may contend in the polls would spell disaster for President Jonathan in terms of votes in Sokoto. This is because not only does the State favour CPC/APC, it will not easily elect a candidate from another state when its own son is running for the position in question. Even though former President Olusegun Obasanjo did poorly in his region (South-West) during the 1999 elections this is not usually the case. In Nigeria states and regions usually offer unflinching support to their candidates as can be witnessed from elections conducted at all levels in Nigeria. If the Speaker runs, President Jonathan would be lucky to win 25% of the votes in the state especially since the Governor would also be required to support his fellow kinsman. The Governor is in his second term so he cannot be hoodwinked with a threat of losing the second term election. The PDP must find a way to win as many votes as possible because this may become one of their toughest states in 2015.

Gombe voted CPC in 2011 but PDP was able to muster 38.2% of the total votes cast. Gombe was one of the states that experienced post-election violence in 2011. This clearly shows that a number of people in Gombe were not happy that the PDP won as many votes as it did. There is a large Christian population in Gombe, which will probably lend its support to President Jonathan if the APC chooses a Northern-Muslim candidate.

The state is currently controlled by the PDP and as long as the Governor remains in the PDP there is a strong likelihood that the PDP will be able to win at least 25% of the total votes cast in the state.

If for any reason Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo decides to decamp to APC it will make the battle for Gombe that much more difficult.

The remaining states in these two regions (Kano, Katsina, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Zamfara) are strongly CPC/APC states. The PDP’s objective in these states should be to win as many votes as possible above 25% of total votes cast. Winning these states outrightly is an unrealistic target for the PDP.

As can be seen from above the PDP will have a very tough time securing significant votes in the north-east and the north-west come 2015. As a result, the PDP is best off ensuring that it can win 25% of the votes cast in the states that make up these regions.

Because these regions are home to almost half of the registered voters in Nigeria a weak performance here by the PDP will make it difficult for the PDP to win majority votes in the whole country, considering that the south-west is overwhelmingly APC.