WHY INEC SHOULD NOT POSTPONE THE 2016 EDO STATE GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION: ELECTION MONITOR PRELIMINARY PRESS STATEMENT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Thursday 8^th, September 2016

Election Monitor (EM) is one of the forty-four (44) Election Observer groups accredited by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to observe the 2016 Edo State Governorship Election. Election Monitor has 36 observers in its mission who will be deployed across local government areas of Edo State on Saturday 10^th September, 2016.

On Wednesday 7^th, September 2016 INEC held a stakeholders meeting to brief all stakeholders of its level of preparation towards the election, affirm the peace accord by candidates of political parties and provide a platform for stakeholders to engage with INEC directly and air their concerns. This meeting was very successful and ended around 3pm. The meeting was chaired by the INEC Chairman Professor Mahmood Yakubu and had in attendance a Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police who represented the Inspector General of Police. During this stakeholders meeting, no word was mentioned by security officials or INEC representatives of any postponement of the Edo Governorship elections as a result of an imminent security threat during the forthcoming Sallah (Eid-El-Kabir) celebrations. However shortly after the conclusion of the meeting news started filtering in that the Department of State Security (DSS) and Nigeria Police were requesting for INEC to post-pone the elections. Excerpts from the press statement read to journalists by the Police spokesman, Don Awunah in Abuja are below:

 “The Nigeria Police and Department of State Services, wish to inform the general public that credible intelligence availed the agencies indicate plans by insurgent/extremist elements to attack vulnerable communities and soft targets with high population during the forthcoming Sallah celebrations between 12th and 13th September, 2016. Edo State is amongst the States being earmarked for these planned attacks by the extremist elements, he added. He stated that: It is in regard of these that we are appealing to INEC which has the legal duty to regulate elections in the country to consider the need for possible postponement of the date of the election in Edo State in order to enable security agencies deal decisively with the envisaged terrorist threats.”

Source: http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/news/why-we-asked-inec-to-postpone-edo-election-police-dss/161773.html?platform=hootsuite#GdY1rasgp4zeKlkQ.99

Firstly, it is important to note that any security threat should be taken seriously and as such it is important that when such issues arise they are given proper consideration. To buttress this point, it should be noted that since November 2015 INEC has conducted 139 elections with 118 being conclusive (84.9%) on the first ballot while 21 determined inconclusive (15.1%) on the first ballot. It is interesting to note that the overwhelming cause for cancellation of election in polling units is violence and threat of violence.

The Electoral Operations Department of INEC on the 9^th August 2016 released a document showing the total number of inconclusive elections between November 2015 and July 2016 and the major reasons why they were inconclusive. The pie chart below summarises this data.

 

It should be noted that elections where ‘Margin of Lead’ was described as the reason for declaring the election inconclusive, violence and security challenges were actually the root causes for cancellations. For example the majority of cancellations in Kogi and Bayelsa were actually due to violence and insecurity threat even though the reason given for the inconclusive election is ‘Margin of Lead’. Looking at the chart above, violence accounts for 47%, security threat 11% and ‘Margin of Lead’ 33% when considering recent inconclusive elections. This adds up to a whopping 91% clearly showing that the problem with inconclusive elections held from November 2015 to July 2016 in Nigeria is primarily a SECURITY PROBLEM and not a failure of INEC to execute its duties effectively. It is therefore expected that INEC should consider critically any security report it receives from security agencies especially since elections cannot be effectively conducted unless there is sufficient peace and security provision.

However the challenge with the current security report is the fact that the DIG who was present throughout the stakeholders meeting made no mention of it all through the meeting and even gave assurances of the Police and other security agencies commitment to deliver a peaceful election even vowing that security agents would not tolerate electoral offenders no matter how highly placed. Since security reports are not generated within a few minutes it becomes difficult to understand how the DIG was unable to brief stakeholders of the report even while it was made public just a few moments after the stakeholders meeting ended. In addition, Edo State has not previously experienced such extremist threats and the timing of this report is rather queer. It should also be noted that Election Day security is so tight coupled with the no movement restrictions that it would be quite arduous for such an extremist attack. Indeed even in the height of insurgency in the North-Eastern part of the country, terror attacks were scarcely if at all recorded on Election Day.

It is important to consider the grave consequences of postponing this election especially for the successful implementation of the poll eventually. Section 25 of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended), provides that Commission to appoint a date not earlier than 150 days but not later than 30 days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office. The tenure of the current governor of Edo State will expire on the 12^th November 2016. The implication of this is that the Edo Governorship election must be conducted latest by 12^th October 2016. This means that INEC only has a window of one month from September 10^th 2016 to conduct this election. If the Commission is unable to conclude the election within this window, it will lead to a constitutional crisis in Edo State which could trigger large scale protests, unrest and possibly violence.

It is important to consider this, because the current election is very competitive from all feelers from the electorates and as a result there is a possibility that the election may not be determined conclusive on the first ballot if there are significant cancellations in polling units on Election Day. Even though INEC and all stakeholders would intend for the election to be concluded on the first ballot, effective planning and scenario building will provide room for the Commission to be able to conclude the election if it is declared inconclusive. If the election is to be postponed, it most likely would be for a one to two week period. This means that a date of either the 17^th or 24^th September 2016 is most likely for the conduct of the election if it is shifted. The problem with this is that it gives INEC only two weeks to conclude the election if it is not declared conclusive on the first ballot. The table below shows that INEC usually requires at least two weeks at a minimum to conduct a re-run of a governorship election declared inconclusive on the first ballot.

Name of Governorship Election declared inconclusive on the first ballot	Initial Date of Election	Date of Re-run	Time duration between initial date of the election and the re-run election
Anambra 2013	16th November 2013	30th November 2013	2 weeks
Kogi 2015	21st November 2015	5th December 2015	2 weeks
Bayelsa 2015	5th December 2015	9th January 2016	4 weeks

While this on the surface may appear sufficient, it doesn’t leave INEC with any wiggle room should any unforeseen circumstance arise or delay in conducting the election. It is for this reason that the Electoral Act allows for between 150 to 30 days before tenure end so as to give the Commission enough leeway to effectively conduct elections irrespective of whatever challenges may arise.

It is also possible that a close election is not determined even after a rerun. This is a case of a second inconclusive election. The Bayelsa 2015 Governorship election re-run which held on the 9^th January 2016 was technically inconclusive because the gap between the two leading candidates was 48,146 while the total number of cancellations was 53,959. INEC approved guidelines and the Regulations of the 2015 general elections in pages 22 – 23, and Paragraph 4, Section N, empowers the Returning Officer to act as follows: “Where the margin of win between the two leading candidates is not in excess of the total number of registered voters of the polling unit(s) where elections were cancelled or not held, decline to make a return until another poll has taken place in the affected polling unit(s) and the result incorporated into a new form, form EC 8D and subsequently recorded into Form EC 8E for Declaration and Return.” However, section 53 subsection 4 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended states that: Notwithstanding the provisions of subsections (2) and (3) of this section the Commission may, if satisfied that the result of the election will not substantially be affected by voting in the area where the election is cancelled, direct that a return of the election be made. The returning officer used his discretion to declare the election conclusive. The implication of this is that it is not outside of the realm of possibility for an election to be determined inconclusive twice. If this situation should arise, it is important that INEC has sufficient time to mobilise its personnel and resources to ensure that such elections are successfully concluded. Postponing the 2016 Edo State Governorship election will make this practically impossible should such a scenario arise.

Media reports indicate that the Nigeria Police intend to deploy between 23,000 and 25,000 officers for the 2015 Edo Governorship Election while the Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps (NSCDC) according to media reports also intend to deploy between 10,000 and 15,000 personnel. The table below shows the relative police deployments in some recent governorship elections in Nigeria. The figures here do not include deployments from other security agencies.

Comparison of security deployments in some recent elections

Governorship Election	Stated number of police officers deployed	Number of Polling Units	Average number of police officers per polling unit
Ekiti 2014	18,000	2,195	8
Bayelsa 2015	14,000	1,804	8
Kogi 2015	16,000	2,507	6
Edo 2016	23,000	2,627	9

It can clearly be seen from the table above that the average ratio of police officers to polling units is highest in Edo State. This clearly shows that security has been beefed up for this election. This level of security should ordinarily ensure peaceful conduct of elections.  

RECOMMENDATION

Election Monitor hereby suggests that INEC should not postpone the 2016 Edo State Governorship Election and consequently go ahead with preparations to hold it on Saturday 10^th September 2016. However it is essential for INEC to explain to the security agencies the fundamental challenges it will have going forward if the election is postponed. It is important for the Commission to explain to security agencies that the postponement could even lead to more significant security threat and possibly on a much wider scale if protests occur which have the propensity to turn violent.  In view of this INEC could encourage the security agencies to beef up security and even provide more security personnel and even the military in selected locations if necessary. The key is for the security agencies is to intensify security deployments in areas where intelligence shows terrorist attacks are most likely. The curfew on Friday 9^th September 2016 could be enforced to commence from 5pm to ensure that the whole state is secured effectively before Election Day. It is Election Monitor’s opinion that the Election can and should hold as planned and that effective strategic deployment from the security agencies should be sufficient to ensure a good outing on Election Day.

Abiodun Ajijola

National Coordinator

Election Monitor