Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Taking a look at what role Ekiti State will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Ekiti State was declared a state on October 1, 1996 alongside five others by the military under the regime of General Sani Abacha. The state, carved out of the territory of old Ondo State, covers the former twelve local government areas that made up the Ekiti Zone of old Ondo State. On creation, it took off with sixteen (16) Local Government Areas (LGAs), having had an additional four carved out of the old ones.
Ekiti State Governor
Dr. Kayode Fayemi

Ekiti state is controlled by the All Progressives Congress (APC) formerly the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Dr Kayode Fayemi is at the helm of the state government. He took his gubernatorial seat via an October 15, 2009 Court of Appeal Judgment which declared him winner over his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) rival, Engineer Segun Oni. The result declared is depicted in the adjacent pie chart. It is clear that the variance in votes received between the ACN and the PDP at the time was just 6%, which is not a very significant margin. 

Fast-forwarding to 2011, the presidential election took a slightly different tone. In this case the PDP was victorious with a 7% margin. This is not too impressive for the PDP considering that the ACN candidate at the time was not seen as nationally viable.

Result of the 2011 Presidential Election in Ekiti State

It is very clear from the two election results depicted above that both the APC and PDP are extremely influential in Ekiti State.  For this reason the 2015 presidential election will be a tough battle in the state and could go either the way of the PDP or the APC.

Result of the Ekiti State Governorship Election as declared 
by the Court of Appeal on October 15th, 2009

However one determining factor will be the 2014 Ekiti State gubernatorial election. The gubernatorial race is likely to be keenly fought as the PDP is currently mending fences within the party and positioning itself for a showdown with the  APC. The APC on the other hand enjoys incumbency and also positive momentum from its merger and registration success.

Because governors are extremely influential in politics within their states, the party that wins the gubernatorial election will likely win at least 60% of the vote during the presidential election in 2015. Looking at the current apathy for the PDP in the South West, the strength of the APC in Ekiti State and the relatively good performance of the current administration in the state, it is very likely that the APC will win the gubernatorial seat and consequently the majority (most likely by a single digit margin) votes in 2015.

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