Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Taking a look at what role Kaduna State will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Kaduna state is the successor to the old Northern Region of Nigeria, which had its capital at Kaduna. In 1967 this was split up into six states, one of which was the North-Central State, whose name was changed to Kaduna State in 1976. This was further divided in 1987, losing the area now part of Katsina State. Under the governance of Kaduna is the ancient city of Zaria. 

Kaduna State Governor
Alhaji Mukhtar Ramalan Yero
Result of the 2011 Presidential Election in Kaduna State

Kaduna state is  currently controlled by the ruling People’s Democratic Party. Kaduna has great history in Nigerian politics. 

The current governor is completing the term of governor Patrick Yakowa who died in an unfortunate helicopter crash in 2012. 

Kaduna has experienced a lot of ethnic and religious crises over the past decades.  Unfortunately these crises have polarised a lot of the people in such a way that there are now areas where Christians can hardly be found living and ditto for Muslims. This is a social situation that has direct impact on the politcs of the state. The large Christian and Muslim indigenous groups ensure that voting along religious lines is very likely and can easily be exploited by politicians.  Given the fact that Governor Yero is a first-time governor he will likely want to deliver for his party the PDP at the presidential election. 

Result of the 2011 Governorship Election in Kaduna State

However if for any reason he decamps to the APC (though unlikely), the PDP will certainly lose the state in 2015. Even if he remains in the PDP the APC will still likely win the state, however the margin will be within single percentage points. The Southern part of Kaduna State is likely to vote overwhelmingly for President Jonathan if the APC selects a Muslim candidate while the northern parts for APC. Whatever the case, the APC is poised to win Kaduna with at least 51 to 55% of the votes if not more.

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