Taking a look at what role Ondo state will play in determining who becomes president in 2015.

Ondo State Governor

Dr Olusegun Mimiko

Ondo State was created on 3 February 1976 from the former Western State. It originally included what is now Ekiti State, which was split off in 1996. Akure is the state capital. The State currently has 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs).

Ondo State is the only state controlled by the Labour Party in Nigeria. The  Executive Governor, Dr Olusegun Mimiko was reelected to serve a second term after the October 20, 2012 Gubernatorial Election.

Ondo State is the only South-West state not under the control of the Action Congress of Nigeria. This is instrumental when considering the likely way the state will vote in 2015.

In 2011, Ondo State voted overwhelmingly for the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Dr Goodluck Jonathan. As a matter of fact, 387,376 people voted for PDP in Ondo State out of 480,260 voters who turned out for the 2011 presidential election in the state. This translates to 81% of the total votes cast, higher than any other state in the South-West (Lagos follows with 67%).

Considering that LP is not part of the APC merger and that Dr Mimiko is formerly of the PDP and still has no love lost with the PDP at the federal level, it is very difficult to see how the APC will win Ondo State come 2015.

In addition, the state PDP chapter is still operational having a stronghold in the South Senatorial district.  The PDP won 75,734 out of 207,274 votes cast in the south senatorial district in the 2012 gubernatorial election, which translates to 37% of  the votes beating both LP and ACN who could only muster 31% and 22% respectively. The party also polled second overall in the election with 155,961 votes.  

The ACN has it major influence in the North Senatorial district, which is also the smallest in size (accounting for just186, 370 votes in the 2012 election or 30% of the total votes cast). It is most likely that the state PDP and LP will work for the return of President Jonathan. The APC in the state has also faced some challenges with both Senator Ajayi Borrofice and Barrister Rotimi Akeredolu being in a supremacy battle for the leadership of the APC in the state.

 Unless there is some drastic change of events, the PDP can expect to win Ondo State quite easily in the 2015 presidential polls. The APC must endeavour to win at least 25% of the total votes cast, as not achieving this would be detrimental to its objective of winning the election.