The All Progressives Congress’ challenge of receiving 25% of the total votes cast in at least 24 states and the FCT in the 2015 Presidential elections

We take a look at the challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) will face in meeting up with the electoral requirement of winning 25% of the votes in 24 states and the FCT in the Presidential election of 2015.

The major problem the APC will face in satisfying the electoral requirements will be from the South-South and South-East geopolitical zones (comprises of 11 states). We will take a look at these two zones and consider its implication on the APCs chances in 2015. 

Total Votes won by each political party in the South-East and South-South geopolitical zones in the 2011 Presidential Election

State	No. of Registered Voters	CPC	PDP	ACN	ANPP	Total Number of Votes	% Voter Turnout
ABIA	1524484	3,743	1,175,984	4,392	1,455	1,185,574	78
AKWA IBOM	1616873	5,348	1,165,629	54,148	2,000	1,227,125	76
ANAMBRA	2011746	4,223	1,145,169	3,437	975	1,153,804	57
BAYELSA	591870	691	504,811	370	136	506,008	85
CROSS RIVER	1148486	4,002	709,382	5,889	2,521	721,794	63
DELTA	2032191	8,960	1,378,851	1,310	2,746	1,391,867	68
EBONYI	1050534	1,025	480,592	1,112	14,296	497,025	47
EDO	1655776	5,348	1,165,629	54,148	2,000	1,227,125	74
ENUGU	1303155	3,753	802,144	1,755	1,111	808,763	62
IMO	1687293	7,591	1,381,357	14,821	2,520	1,406,289	83
RIVERS	2429231	13,182	1,817,762	16,382	1,449	1,848,775	76
TOTAL	17,051,639	57,866	11,727,310	157,764	31,209	11,974,149

South-East Geopolitical Zone

Despite a faction of the APGA having joined the APC, the South-East region will probably be a nightmare for the APC. In 2011, all the opposition parties put together could only muster 66,209 votes, which translates to about 1% of the vote in the whole region. If the APC selects a Northern-Muslim candidate it will be very difficult to win any significant number of votes in 2015 in the region, especially if Dr Goodluck Jonathan is the flag bearer for the PDP. The challenge for the APC is to try and win at least 25% of the votes in these states, which make up the region. Winning the zone should not be a priority as it is extremely unlikely. These states will be critical if the APC intends to fulfill the legal requirement of having at least one-quarter of the total votes cast in at least 24 states of the federation and the FCT. The APC must find a way of obtaining this minimum number of votes in at least two South-Eastern states. The APC will not be able to rely strictly on zones where it has an overwhelming presence because of the electoral requirements to win an election. The APC has strong influence in at least 18 states (North-West, North-East and South-West excluding Ondo State). This leaves it 6 states short of the required number.

The South-East and North-Central should be the best bet for achieving this, as the South-South is probably not realistic at all (with the exception of Edo State). If the APC can achieve 25% of total votes cast in four of the North-Central states then it needs to achieve the same in at least two South-Eastern states (or one south-eastern state and Edo State). The APC cannot overlook the South-East if it is to win the Presidential election. 

Total Votes won by each political party in the South-East and South-South geopolitical zones in 2011 Presidential Election

South-South Geopolitical Zone

This region is the home of President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP’s strongest support resides here. The APC /ACN controls Edo State as its only South-South state. The APC must ensure that it is able to win as many votes as possible and achieve at least 25% of total votes cast in Edo State. 

This should be feasible since Governor Adams Oshiomole who is an APC stalwart runs the state. The APC will probably have similar results in the remaining south-south states as it had in 2011. If the political crisis in Rivers state results in the state Governor, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi decamping to the APC, the APC may have an inroad in the state, even though it cannot expect to win the state. Even 25% of the total votes cast in the state will be a stretch.

The 2015 Presidential election will be keenly contested if the APC succeeds in its merger completely. However the APC needs to find a strategy to satisfy the electoral requirements by doing much better than it did in the South-East and South-South in 2011. Unless it can make an inroad into at least two or three states in these regions it may not be able to satisfy the electoral requirements for winning the 2015 polls.